The Weather Eye, July 12 - Drag Racin' in the Trade Winds
by David Sutcliffe, July 12th, 2018
The weather – observed and predicted – now looks like a normal summer pattern in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Finally!
Amazingly, after sailing for 1600-2100 nautical miles and through a series of complex weather systems and transitions, the fleet are all on very similar final approach lines. That in itself is a bit unusual. A more normal situation would be for boats to be converging into the finish from a wider range of laylines and optimal gybe angles.
July 12, 0900 HST – a normal summer pattern prevails over the Northeast Pacific Ocean
So, it’s a lot simpler now, right? In one word, yes!
The longer answer is that the boats are each on their own line to the Pailolo Channel which separates Maui and Molokai. That line was pretty much determined for each boat by how and where they managed to navigate through the low wind area associated with the ridge/plateau that extended East of the High, and into the actual Trade Winds. The lines are more similar than different.
At the macro level, the expected conditions from here to the finish are Trade Winds blowing from 075-090 degrees True at 13 – 18 knots of True Wind Speed, sustained, with higher speeds in gusts or squalls.
Now, it is a simpler mode of optimum boat speed in the desired direction. This is known as Velocity Made Good on Course – VMC, rather than Velocity Made Good – VMG which is relative to the wind. For boats that are inside their own optimum laylines to the Finish, gybing with squalls or changes in wind direction or speed will help optimize VMC.
As the boats are all on a similar approach line, and the macro weather picture is stable, it looks like the last stretch will be a raw speed drag race.
July 12, 0900 HST – a drag race in the Trade Winds to the Finish!
But, there's always a few more things to think about … the islands of Maui and Molokini, and the Pailolo Channel between them, bend and funnel the Trade Winds. Plus, the Finish line is near the leeward side of the island of Maui. To finish well, the boats should be paying close attention to how they get in the channel and across the Finish line.
One eye on the weather!
Caveat: this article and images are presented for informational purposes – they are not predictions of or advice to any boat regarding weather or routing!
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Featured Yacht Profile
Annie M (2022)
Type: Amel Mango 52Skipper: John McCarthy
Port: Santa Fe, NM
Blog: 1 articles posted
The Annie M crew has a wealth of experience to contribute to the Vic-Maui 2022 race. John McCarthy, the captain of Annie M, is a lifelong sailor with experience racing Snipes and J24s, as well as cruising on a Swan 47 and, of course, an Amel 52, the Annie M. His boat has been beautifully restored and named after his beloved wife of 60 years.
Steve McCarthy brings years of racing and cruising experiences from sailing many seas. He’s also a sailmaker and, since 2004, owner of Hogin Sails located in Alameda, CA. In addition to working with sail lofts from Seattle to Santa Cruz, he has raced on Moore 24s and J24s and cruised on a Swan 47 across Europe. Our sails are in good hands with Steve as a sailor since he was a wee one.
Steve Summers is an instructor at Seattle Sailing Club, an Outward Bound teacher, and a National Outdoor Leadership teacher with experience sailing long voyages requiring an excellent ability to handle a variety of conditions and personalities. He’s also a Wilderness First Responder and a well-respected navigator in the Pacific Northwest. A calm soul called to the wild, Steve seeks adventure, and Vic-Maui is one of the adventures he’s ready to tackle.
Callum Hally is focused on sailing when the opportunity arises. In the past five years, he’s sailed more than 500 hours on a variety of boats such as a Catalina 22, J35c and an Andrew 53 to name a few. Through his previous job with Seattle Sailing Club supporting the customer’s experience, he became passionate about being on the water. He’s an excellent crew member with an insatiable thirst for reading, which makes him a fascinating conversationalist, wise beyond his years.
Bill Busch participated as “old goat’ status for Mackinaw races. He’s had a 1st place PHRf overall, 1st place in j105 class, 1st place j120 class. He’s looking forward to sailing a long ocean passage. He recently completed his International Offshore Safety program at St. Petersburg Florida Yacht Club. Bill is known for his kindness and patience.
Sarah Mackay, a lifelong sailor who learned at a young age the art of not getting seasick and never getting bored. She’s a crew member, communicator and, on occasion, cracker of jokes at which she’s the only one laughing. She has raced on J24s and J30s, crossed the North Sea and cruised throughout Europe on a Swan 47, and explored the Pacific Northwest on an Amel 52 named Annie M.
We are busy preparing the boat (and ourselves) for this epic journey. This year, Annie M will be entered in the Pacific NW Offshore Yacht Race and the Swiftsure Yacht Race leading up to our start date of the Vic-Maui International Yacht Race in early July.
